Taubman Center Public Opinion Survey

 

Langevin Leads Chafee; Carcieri Leads All Challengers; N.E. Patriots Rule;

One-Third of State Expects Red Sox to Repeat as World Series Champions

 

A statewide survey of 384 Rhode Island voters conducted February 12-13, 2005 finds Representative James Langevin would lead Senator Lincoln Chafee in a U.S. Senate race, and Governor Don Carcieri leads all challengers.In sports, one-third of Rhode Islanders expect the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champions; Red Sox fans outnumber Yankees fans six to one; and a majority considers the Patriots a dynasty and expects another Super Bowl victory.††††††

 

PROVIDENCE, R.I. Ė Rhode Island is Red Sox territory, according to a new statewide survey conducted by researchers at Brown University.Sixty-six percent consider themselves a fan of the Boston Red Sox, compared to 11 percent who say they are fans of the New York Yankees, 3 percent who are fans of another major league baseball team, 14 percent who are not fans of any team, and 6 percent who are unsure.

 

The survey was conducted February 12-13, 2005 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White, Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory.It is based on a statewide random sample of 384 registered voters in Rhode Island.Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points.

 

Of those individuals who considered themselves a baseball fan, 52 percent said support of their team was very strong, 29 percent indicated it was somewhat strong, 9 percent stated their support was not very strong, and 10 percent were unsure.Yankee fans are more intense than Red Sox fans.Whereas 56 percent of Red Sox fans describe their support for their team as very strong, 64 percent of Yankee fans said they were very strong supporters of their team.†††

 

Thirty-five percent of state voters expect the Red Sox to win the World Series again this year, while 36 percent think they will not.Women (44 percent) were more likely than men (27 percent) to think the Red Sox would repeat their World Series triumph.

 

In the wake of the New England Patriots football teamís victory in the Super Bowl, 58 percent consider the Patriots to be a dynasty team.Fifty-eight percent expect them to win the Super Bowl again next year.Women (66 percent) were more likely than men (50 percent) to believe the Patriots would repeat their victory.

 

The survey also inquired about the upcoming U.S. Senate race in 2006.If the Senate contest were held today, Representative James Langevin has a substantial lead over incumbent Senator Lincoln Chafee.Forty-one percent indicate they would vote for Langevin, compared to 27 percent who say they would vote for Chafee.Among women, Langevin has a lead of 41 to 24 percent, while among men, he is ahead of Chafee by 41 to 32 percent.With Republican voters, Chafee leads Langevin by 43 to 30 percent, while Langevin is ahead of Chafee by 61 to 18 percent with Democrats and 36 to 31 percent among Independents.

 

If the Democratic candidate were Secretary of State Matt Brown, Chafee holds a lead of 39 to 25 percent.Among women, Chafee is ahead of Brown by 42 to 26 percent, while among men, Chafee leads by 38 to 24 percent.With Republicans, Chafee leads Brown 54 to 13 percent and Chafee also is ahead of Brown by 44 to 18 percent among Independents.Brown is ahead of Chafee among Democrats by 43 to 31 percent.

 

If the Republican candidate were Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, Langevin leads by 46 to 22 percent.Among Republicans, Laffey is ahead by 69 to 13 percent, while Langevin leads Laffey among Democrats (76 to 3 percent) and Independents (43 to 21 percent).With women, Langevin is ahead by 46 to 21 percent, while among men, Langevin has a margin of 47 to 25 percent.

 

In a match-up pitting Laffey versus Brown, the two are virtually tied with 30 percent expressing support for Brown and 27 percent saying they would vote for Laffey.Among women, Brown is ahead by 29 to 26 percent, while with men, he leads Laffey by 34 to 29 percent.With Republicans, Laffey is ahead of Brown by 68 to 6 percent.Among Democrats, Brown leads by 55 to 10 percent.With Independents, Laffey is ahead by 27 to 25 percent.

 

Governor Don Carcieri has a lead over either one of two possible Democratic candidates.If the election were held today and the Democratic candidate were Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty, Carcieri leads 44 to 33 percent.Among Republicans, Carcieri leads Fogarty by 89 to 6 percent, while Fogarty is ahead with Democrats by 55 to 24 percent.Carcieri also is ahead with Independents, by a 49 to 29 percent margin.With men, Carcieri has a lead to 51 to 33 percent over Fogarty, but the governorís margin narrows to 40 to 36 percent among women.

 

If the candidate were former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, Carcieri has a margin of 46 to 30 percent.Carcieri leads Whitehouse among Republicans by 78 to 11 percent and among Independents by 55 to 22 percent.However, among Democrats, Whitehouse is ahead by 56 to 26 percent.With men, Carcieri is ahead by 51 to 31 percent, while among women, the governor leads by 45 to 31 percent.

 

When asked about the job performance of various public officials, 57 percent feel Governor Donald Carcieri is doing a good job (down from 60 percent last year).Forty-six percent believe Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty is doing a good job (up from 44 percent).Fifty percent think Attorney General Patrick Lynch is doing a good job, up from the 40 percent. Thirty-six percent feel Secretary of State Matt Brown is doing a good job, up from 28 percent.Thirty-six percent believe Treasurer Paul Tavares is doing a good job, down from 39 percent last time.Fifteen percent rate the job performance of Senate President Joseph Montelbano as good or excellent (down from 16 percent) and 21 percent rate the performance of House Speaker William Murphy as good or excellent, down from 22 percent.Sixty-two percent say Providence Mayor David Cicilline is doing a good job, up from 61 percent.†† Fifty-one percent indicate that Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey is doing a good job, up from 39 percent two years ago.

 

President George Bush's support within the state remains the same.In this month's survey, 31 percent feel he is going a good or excellent job, the same as last year.Sixty-three percent rate the performance of Senator Jack Reed good or excellent, the same as in the previous survey.Forty-eight percent believe Senator Lincoln Chafee is doing a good job, down from 56 percent.Fifty-nine percent feel Congressman James Langevin is doing a good job (up from 56 percent) and 49 percent believe Congressman Patrick Kennedy is doing a good job (up from 42 percent).

 

Fifty-two percent believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 26 percent feel it is off on the wrong track.Last year, 54 percent believed the state was headed in the right direction and 33 percent stated that the state was headed off on the wrong track.

 

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163.A copy of the press release outlining survey results can be found at www.InsidePolitics.org.

 

Survey Questions and Responses

 

If the U.S. Senate election were held today, would you vote for:39% Republican Lincoln Chafee, 25% Democrat Matt Brown, 36% don't know or no answer

 

If the U.S. Senate election were held today, would you vote for:27% Republican Lincoln Chafee, 41% Democrat James Langevin, 32% don't know or no answer

 

If the U.S. Senate election were held today, would you vote for:27% Republican Stephen Laffey, 30% Democrat Matt Brown, 43% don't know or no answer

 

If the U.S. Senate election were held today, would you vote for:22% Republican Stephen Laffey, 46% Democrat James Langevin, 32% don't know or no answer

 

If the governorís election were held today, would you vote for:44% Republican Don Carcieri, 33% Democrat Charles Fogarty, 23% don't know or no answer

 

If the governorís election were held today, would you vote for:46% Republican Don Carcieri, 30% Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, 24% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as president? 8% excellent, 23% good, 25% only fair, 36% poor, 8% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as US Senator?25% excellent, 38% good, 16% only fair, 3% poor, 18% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Lincoln Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator?10% excellent, 38% good 24% only fair, 13% poor, 15% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. Representative?14% excellent, 35% good, 23% only fair, 15% poor, 13% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as U.S. Representative? 16% excellent, 43% good, 16% only fair, 1% poor, 24% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Don Carcieri is doing as governor? 19% excellent, 38% good, 23% only fair, 12% poor, 8% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Charles Fogarty is doing as lieutenant governor? 10% excellent, 36% good, 15% only fair, 2% poor, 37% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Patrick Lynch is doing as attorney general? 9% excellent, 41% good, 24% only fair, 8% poor, 18% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Matt Brown is doing as secretary of state? 4% excellent, 32% good, 21% only fair, 4% poor, 39% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Paul Tavares is doing as general treasurer? 8% excellent, 28% good, 14% only fair, 4% poor, 46% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Joseph Montelbano is doing as Senate President? 2% excellent, 13% good, 18% only fair, 12% poor, 55% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job William Murphy is doing as Speaker of the House? 3% excellent, 18% good, 20% only fair,15% poor, 44% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job David Cicilline is doing as mayor of Providence? 18% excellent, 44% good, 14% only fair, 7% poor, 17% don't know or no answer

 

How would you rate the job Stephen Laffey is doing as mayor of Cranston?22% Excellent, 29% good, 11% only fair, 7% poor, 31% don't know or no answer

 

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 52% right direction, 26% wrong track, 22% don't know or no answer

 

Do you consider yourself:11% more of a New York Yankees fan, 66% more of a Boston Red Sox fan, 3% a fan of another major league baseball team, 14% not a fan of any major league baseball team, 6% donít know or no answer

 

(If a fan), is your support of this team:52% very strong, 29% somewhat strong, 9% not very strong, 10% donít know or no answer

 

Do you expect the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series this year? 35% yes, 36% no, 29% donít know or no answer

 

Do you expect the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl next year? 58% yes, 16% no, 26% donít know or no answer

 

Based on the fact that the New England Patriots have won the Super Bowl three of the last four years, do you consider them to be a dynasty team? 58% yes, 25% no, 17% donít know or no answer