George W. Bush: The $36 Million Dollar Man (posted July 8, 1999)

Texas Governor George W. Bush's recent success in raising $36.25 million has attracted great interest. The cash dwarfs the fundraising total of $6 million by his nearest rival, Arizona Senator John McCain. It puts Bush in a strong position to build an organization, attract media attention, and communicate with voters.

But equally important is Bush's success at message formation. In election campaigns, the successful formula often is Money + Message = Victory. Too many analysts are focusing entirely on his fundraising to the exclusion of his message. In recent months, Bush has done an extraordinary job at the following activities:

 counteracting the Democratic theme that Republicans are extremists

 separating himself from Congressional Republicans, whose agenda is controversial with the public

 presenting himself in settings where he can be photographed with women, minorities, and the downtrodden, which conveys the idea that he is not right-wing

 showing a quick response capability on issues of the day that is as fast and effective as that of the Clinton White House, the acknowledged masters of this art

 winning the endorsements of elected Republicans. Right now, more than half of the elected GOP members of the House, Senate, and governorships have endorsed Bush, which is extraordinarily high for this early stage of the process

 crafting nomination rules which will help him accumulate convention delegates fast while penalizing his opponents. Many Republican presidential primaries now have winner-take-all rules which give all of that state's delegates to the person winning the primary. This contrasts with Democratic rules favoring proportional representation which divides delegates in proportion to vote totals in each state

With these strengths, opponents are left with only one effective strategy against Bush. Tar him as an establishment figure committed to the status quo who really is not very different from Clinton and Gore. Already, Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan are using this line of attack. It is their only hope for derailing the Bush train at this point. However, if they are successful in persuading many Republicans that Bush does not share their values, they can create havoc in GOP circles. Look for other Republicans to use this approach against Bush, and to threaten to bolt the party and run a third-party candidate if their ideas and vision are not represented by the Texas governor. These types of guerrilla warfare tactics are the only things weak armies can use against much stronger ones.