Gore versus Bradley

Vice President Al Gore faces the riskiest type of nomination fight for any front-runner, a one-on-one battle against a single opponent. In contrast to the situation faced by George Bush, Sr. in 1988 when the sitting vice president ran against a half-dozen opponents (such as Bob Dole and Pat Robertson, among others) and Walter Mondale in 1984 when the vice president had several major opponents (Gary Hart, John Glenn, and Jesse Jackson, among others), Gore does not have the luxury of dividing and conquering the field. Any voter who does not like anything about Gore or Clinton, such as being too boring, liberal, centrist, sleazy, or status quo has only one choice, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. There is no other place in the primary for the disaffected to go.

Bradley's task is to assemble a broad coalition of disparate elements within the Democratic party who are dissatisfied with the Clinton-Gore Administration. He must convince skeptical Democrats that he has the best shot of beating the Republican nominee and regardless of whether voters are liberal or more moderate that he can best represent their policy views. The risk Bradley faces is that the more specific he becomes about public policy, the more difficult it will be to hold together the diverse coalition of people upset with Clinton and Gore.

The odds are that Gore will win his party's nomination. Given the fact that most elements of the Democratic establishment will support him and the President will throw the full weight of his office behind the vice president, the nomination is his to lose. But because Gore still is running at least 10 point behind George W. Bush, Jr., the governor of Texas, look for a lively nomination battle between Gore and Bradley. Gore must convince his own party that he can lead them to victory in November, 2000.